What is a prediction in machine learning?

It is a process of calculating the value of another random variable Z whose distribution is related to the true state of the nature (this property plays a pivotal role in any machine learning algorithm). Predictions are considered good when they agree over all the possible values of Z, on an average.

What is the difference between forecast and prediction?

Forecast is more process-oriented and follows a certain methodology of doing something. In a way, it assumes that the past behavior is a good enough indicator of what is going to happen in the future. Prediction considers all historical processes, influencing variables and interactions to reveal the future.

Can a prediction model predict if it is currently raining?

So, when you are asking your prediction model to estimate whether it is currently raining, the model would probably respond that it is unlikely to rain due to the high atmospheric pressure. One of the challenges of forecasting is finding the number of previous events that should be considered when making predictions about the future.

How to make forecasts for the more distant future?

Thus, to make forecasts for the more distant future, we need to consider more distant historic events in order to capture the current weather trend. For example, if the historic trend indicates that the weather is becoming worse, this should be incorporated into the forecast.